It depends on how much coffee you drink.
IBM’s artificial intelligence system Watson independently created the trailer for the movie Morgan. It needed just 100 other trailers to analyze, a mere 24 hours, and a few kilowatts of electricity.
And very soon, it will be able to create our video ads in the same way. Goodbye, marketing agencies and departments—welcome, Watson? Hmm… perhaps it’s time to explore the future of marketing with a bit of natural intelligence and a crystal ball on the table. :)
Artificial intelligence?
The term artificial intelligence is gaining in popularity and is already keeping many people up at night. Will I wake up tomorrow in a normal world—or will robots have taken over my job?
The forecast for tomorrow looks fairly stable. Most articles about artificial intelligence are essentially media hype—tasty, charming, readable, but overly inflated.
In the case of the Morgan trailer, it was in fact a fairly standard computer program that, with the help of experienced experts and using deep learning techniques, simply analyzed 100 horror trailers and stored the patterns. Then it selected six minutes of footage from the film that best matched those patterns.
Artificial intelligence or deep learning?
Is pattern searching and comparison considered artificial intelligence? Most amateur statistics enthusiasts would more likely classify it as data mining using highly advanced tools. For example, linear regression.
Among the experts in this field, such techniques are classified as supervised deep learning. A specialist (with lots of coffee and willpower) trains the programmatic solution to reach a conclusion.
Artificial intelligence, in contrast to supervised, would mean unsupervised deep learning, where the program trains itself. And primarily for its own sake, that is, for its own needs. So far, no one has even come close to this.
If the terminology has motivated you, here is a guide for your career as co-creators of deep learning.
Deep learning in marketing today (2017)
However we refer to this concept, it is incredibly effective. Watson performed the movie analysis and selected the best clips in 24 hours.
For an experienced human creator, the same work would take about 15 to 20 working days. Watson can now repeat this anytime in just a few hours if we provide him with a horror movie.
And Watson is not the only one at the table who would eagerly grind your coffee incredibly fast:
- Google Analytics analyzes the behavior of millions of users and stores behavioral patterns. PaveAI autonomously converts this data into decision-making recommendations
- Facebook Messenger answers questions from your users.
- AdWords suggests the most suitable images, ad layouts, and their appearance based on the content of your landing page.
All of these activities just a few years ago required entire marketing teams.
Is your marketing job at risk in the next (3) 10 years?
Deep learning systems are already firmly embedded among us. They work excellently, and we can expect them to perform even better. To understand their future effectiveness, let's take a moment to return to the film industry.
From trailer to full movie
Programs for film creation will soon independently generate trailers using deep learning. Human interference will probably only worsen the result. You know what happens when your boss last meddled with the design of a PowerPoint presentation?
And soon they will intervene in the production of recorded scenes.
Computer programs can create new footage from existing shots — changing the text, pronunciation, emotions.
In just a few steps, we can foresee that a program will read a book and, based on it, create a movie. Whether a thriller or a romance. It could even let you choose your favorite version of the same film, say, a comedy.
Inefficient people in marketing
In this near future, will there still be a need for people behind the cameras and microphones, stylists, set designers, and all the others who currently make a living from creating films or video ads?
The economically obvious answer: a few kilowatts of electricity is simply a much lower cost than an entire team of experts who constantly need coffee. And more versions of a film mean satisfying a broader group of users.
The same applies to marketing:
Deep learning will eliminate many marketing tasks
Precisely because of its exceptional efficiency, we can expect that in the future deep learning will make many micro and increasingly complex decisions for us. Programs will practically autonomously create:
Endanfered professions: marketing agencies, drivers, doctors
Software solutions using deep learning are capable of better (safer) driving than humans and point to a major loss of jobs in transportation.
Bus, truck, or train drivers will simply be too risky compared to robots.
On top of that, a robot can drive continuously, not just during limited working hours. Not to mention the amount of coffee consumed.
The same applies to demanding professions, like general medicine. Software solutions, based on patient images, are able to diagnose pneumonia much more accurately than a doctor.
Especially after a long overnight shift and, well, an empty coffee machine.
Economics as salvation
As so often before, the dreams of all technology enthusiasts will most likely be spoiled by their nightmare: economics.
The cost of deep learning AI solutions
It’s quite clear that the huge human cost comes from coffee.
But in deep learning systems, there’s a similar dependency: input data. The program can generate some on its own, but in the real world, the combinations are endless and the parameters keep changing.
We need fresh (as accurate as possible) data in large quantities. Coffee, anyone?
As a result, Google needs real users for its deep learning solutions, it has to acquire and retain them. It has to ask for participation, look for legal loopholes in storing and processing that data.
Sound familiar?
Exactly, marketing isn’t free, and data acquisition is a cost for Google or any other deep learning system.
The data market behaves like any other market. With demand, the price rises. It depends on how many users are willing to share their real data.
Scope, data relevance, and accuracy
A deep learning system gives quite accurate solutions when we have a large volume of data — or very wrong solutions.
But what if you’re a small café wanting to advertise your offer in a village? There’s a high chance your waitress knows her regulars better than Google does.
Even though there’s clearly rapid development in specific cases, artificial intelligence is still just statistical prediction based on sampling and lots of data.
And as Mark Twain once nicely put it:
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Mirror, mirror, on the wall, which AI is the best of them all?
Companies will, therefore, hire deep learning solutions and make their decision on the most suitable one based on accuracy and cost.
Deep learning systems will indeed become one of the most useful tools in marketing, but among the various ones available, there will still be a need to choose. They will need to be trained and used with our own examples.
We will need to pay for them and assess whether they are truly the best for our business.
A game without a winner (and flavor)
Have you ever wondered who all uses Google AdWords? You and your competition?
We all contribute the same budget into the same system, which displays almost identical ads to the same target audiences?
There’s something unappealing about this future, right? Exactly, the same cappuccino for everyone.
If we leave everything to deep learning systems and employees no longer intervene, users will see the same messages at the same time, in the same place.
I can’t speak for you, but I’d prefer my cappuccino without milk.
The operation of artificial intelligence is driven by human needs
And to conclude, here's the biggest obstacle to the dramatic conspiracy theory, where robots drink all the coffee, and humans are forced to drink water. You know, the theory that a small percentage of greedy capitalists control everything through robotic production and automated decision-making systems?
The economic irrationality of this scenario is obvious. Capital owners would, in this case, be owners of dead capital. Robots producing large quantities of goods for nobody.
And they wouldn’t even drink the coffee made by other robots (owners of another greedy capitalist).
In fact, a fleet of automated buses in this bleak scenario would be a complete loss, as there would be no passengers (because they don’t have money for transportation since they have no jobs).
Even a ticket with robotized coffee service couldn’t be sold in such a society.
Google AdWords or Adobe Premiere with all the possible deep learning add-ons are just unnecessary solutions if people don't click on ads with the intent to buy a kilogram of coffee.
We need deep learning systems only if people have needs and the means to buy coffee. If the economy of society works. And for the economy to work, we need employment, wages, and all the other mechanisms that have developed over centuries.
A bleak future where robots do everything and humans are redundant and poor simply cannot happen under normal circumstances. Because then nobody would need those robots. The only possible scenario is the one in which artificial intelligence and deep learning replace part of the tasks.
OK, another possible scenario is the theory of universal basic income. This involves a lot of free coffee, and maybe we’ll discuss it some other time. Over an extended coffee break.
Will artificial intelligence take over your marketing job?
Yes. In marketing offices and departments, far too much coffee is certainly being consumed. Every month, the same Excel spreadsheets are opened, then copied into a new version, so someone can make (almost) the same decision as last month and last year.
Artificial intelligence will take over most of these tasks, or at least significantly change them. And it will open the door to new dimensions of marketing. To variations of coffee that are currently unknown, but will emerge over time as modern trends.
New jobs will be created, where your tasks will be different.
Fun in the new dimensions of marketing
Did you know that the main image for this post was created by the MidJourney program in less than a minute, with the text input "each technology has its own purpose in marketing"?
If you’re afraid of such changes and new versions of coffee, this might be quite stressful for you. But if you’re with us, at least it will be fun. :)
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